Foul Territory

For lo, the winter is past, the rain is over and gone; the flowers appear on the earth; the time of the singing of birds is come; and the voice of the turtle is heard in our land. Song of Solomon 2:11-12

So Ernie Harwell began each season in the broadcast booth of the Detroit Tigers. He spent 42 years calling their games, and I thought it a fitting way to kick off my baseball preview, as pitchers and catchers report this week, and spring games are just around the corner. Teams are listed in order of predicted finish. National League preview will be forthcoming.

American League East

New York Yankees: Randy Johnson is the big addition as Steinbrenner continues to seek the championship that has eluded his team since their victory over the Mets in 2000. Lieber is gone, Bernie Williams is a year older and slower, and no one knows what to expect from Jason Giambi. Will Tino Martinez continue is resurgence from last season? Even though they overpaid for Pavano and Wright, and they seem determined to kill their farm system, it says here that Sheffield, Rodriguez, Posada, Johnson, Mussina, and Rivera have enough to carry this team to another division title.

Boston Red Sox: Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe are gone, replaced by David Wells, Matt Clement, and Wade Miller (midseason, most likely). Schilling, Arroyo, and Wakefield remain, and this team should have good pitching, as a healthy Miller could be a difference maker. The team will score runs with Ortiz and Ramirez, but will the pitching continue to stop the other teams? I'm not ready to hand the title to a team dependent on a pitcher who turns 42 in May and Wade Miller's return, but if both of those things go right, the Red Sox could be as good as last year as the Yankees get real old, real fast.

Toronto Blue Jays: This was almost the Orioles until I looked at pitching. Halladay should bounce back after an ineffective 2004, and the rest of the rotation should be solid, if not spectacular. Eric Hinske moves across the diamond and gets a chance to prove his ineffectiveness the last two years is the fluke, rather than his spectacular rookie season. Replacing him is Cory Koskie, who should provide some pop in the middle of the order, if not a high average. The outfield is young, save for Wells, and they hope to improve, though it's painfully obvious that they're playing for third, with little short term shot at the two big dogs.

Baltimore Orioles: It's probably not a good sign when your top starter spends time in jail after hitting a judge in his home country. When his ineffectiveness grows with his expanding waist, it's cause for concern. As for the lineup, even if Sammy Sosa continues in his decline phase, he is better than most left fielders on the market this winter. Lopez and Tejada should continue to hit, though many of the other players are right around their age 27 peak, so drastic improvement would be unusual. Can Mora keep it up? Will Palmeiro have more baseball Viagra to keep him going? They should focus less on aging veterans in the future, and more on developing the talent it takes to dethrone the two richest teams.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Another year, another last place finish. Roberto Alomar joins the club, even though there's no reason to have him. Let the kids play. As usual, they need to focus on the players that will be around when they are able to contend, not the old timers they can collect for today. The organization is headed in the right direction, though. Upton, Lugo, Gomes, Cantu, and Kazmir should be given all the chances they can get to develop. Hopefully, this is the year we find out how badly the Mets were fleeced in the Zambrano-Kazmir trade. This team could crawl out of the basement, but I think the teams ahead of them improved too much.

American League Central

Minnesota Twins: It's them or the Indians, and I like their bullpen better. Full seasons from Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau should help as well here in the cheapskate Central. They'll deal with the loss of Koskie, and Johan Santana was the best pitcher in the league last year (not to mention recently locked up with a four year salary). The performance of Radke, Punto, and Rivas could end up telling the story of their season. Joe Nathan should continue his dominance as a reliever as they fight tooth and nail with the Tribe for the crown.

Cleveland Indians: They were right in the thick of it last year until a late season meltdown allowed the Twins to pull comfortably away. Mark Shapiro had a long term plan, and he's executed it well to get them on the brink of contention. They have a lot of young talent and are not totally unlike the mid 90's Indians with good young talent and few well-placed veterans. I like the Millwood signing, especially the shortness and dependence on good performance. He's not a front liner, but he will help this team a lot. C.C. Sabathia continues to be one of the better young lefties in the league, and the hamstring that shut him down in September is ready for 200+ innings at the top of the Cleveland rotation. Travis Hafner hopes to build on his near-MVP quality season, and Victor Martinez is a star in the making. This team could make the division very interesting.

Chicago White Sox: Magglio Ordonez plays for Detroit, but I still think the Sox will finish ahead of them. Frank Thomas hopes to play more than last year, depending on his recovery from ankle surgery, while Konerko looks to build on his monster season of 41 HR. The rotation, with Buehrle, Garcia, and Contreras at the front should be at the least serviceable, with Garcia and Buerhle possibly spectacular. I'm less enthused about new White Sox Dye, Podsednik, and Pierzynski, as their recent performance does not say "playoff bound" to me, though the price was right on Dye. They might miss Carlos Lee more than they think, and we'll get to see if Pierzynski's "clubhouse cancer" routine has a Chicago showing.

Detroit Tigers: Bonderman has great stuff, but the support just isn't there. They will be better than last year, and they might break .500, but I foresee another fourth place finish. The pitching isn't enough, even though they've added the remains of Troy Percival, and they will need more out of their outfield than Magglio can give them by himself. Bobby Higginson is a big hole in the lineup, while Alex Sanchez hit the emptiest .322 in the history of the game, walking only 7 times while hitting all of 2 homers. This is not sustainable. The team seems to be at least headed in the right direction, and there is evidence of a plan, but this year is not the year it all comes together, especially with Ivan Rodriguez yet another year older. He is unlikely to be around when the Tigers next contend, but he should continue to play well, as his high average last year was augmented by some pop.

Kansas City Royals: Too bad for Rob Neyer. His team will likely find the cellar again. They are looking better than last year's train wreck, though. Remember the name Zack Greinke, as this kid will be great. He's only 21, and he's got what it takes to win at this level. After him, the rotation isn't great, though I like the Lima signing. In the lineup, they don't get a half year of Beltran like they did last year, but they Marrero pickup at catcher is a good one, and I'll be very disappointed if Calvin Pickering doesn't get the chance to be the next overweight DH in the David Ortiz mold.

American League West

Anaheim Angels: Who doesn't like to see K-Rod pitch (other than opposing batters)? He slides into the closer's role after the team let Percival take the Tigers' money. I wouldn't be surprised if all three of my division winner picks ended up wrong, but I think Anaheim has enough in the tank to repeat last year's success, while Oakland may have been looking toward 2006 with their offseason. MVP Guererro is a superstar and Steve Finley has at least one good year left. The Cabrera pickup may have been necessary to keep pace with the other teams, even if they overpaid. There is uncertainty at third as we'll see if Dallas McPherson fulfills his early promise since the departure of Glaus. Darin Erstad still has no business at first, and Bartolo Colon is still one of the best. If things break right, they could make the World Series, but only if it all goes right.

Oakland Athletics: Trading away two of the Big Three in one offseason has turned some heads, but most are willing to allow that Billy Beane is smarter than everyone else. I think they want to win now, but the moves were made with an eye on remaining competitive for years to come. I'm not sure they kept the right one of the three, but time will tell. The lineup has gone younger with the letting go of Dye, who was not one of their better investments. Swisher and Crosby are young and talented, and have a good chance to improve this year. Scutaro moves back into the utility role, and new catcher Kendall is a solid player who will help in a lot of ways. If they win the division after losing two of their best starting pitchers, I think the rest of the West should just give up and admit resistance is futile.

Texas Rangers: Nice looking infield, and Seattle's going to have to prove it to me. The starting pitching, as usual, is a big suspect, but they seem to have the bats to make up for a lot of it. Blalock and Texeira are a year older and a year better, while Young is solidly in his prime. Soriano's decline due to bad selection continues, but he should be able to hold his current level of production (remember when he was the next Hank Aaron?). The outfield is just all right, though the Hidalgo addition is one of the underrated deals of the winter, as his numbers should jump in the Texas hitting environment. Chan Ho Park is, as usual, craptacular.

Seattle Mariners: They made a big splash in free agency, grabbing Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre. If Sexson is recovered, they can't be nearly as bad as last year's disaster, but I'm still picking them for the cellar, as they are still old. Boone is old, steroids or not. Moyer can't cheat time forever, and the rest of the team just doesn't have what it takes to pull the rest of the team to contention. Of course, watch this be the year they put it all together and win the division, but I'm not banking on it.

Still to come, the National League...