Foul Territory

As promised, here is my National League preview. There's been some turnover on the playoff teams, as well as some big names changing teams. How will it all shake out? Here's what I'm predicting at this early date.

National League East

Atlanta Braves: People have been predicting the end of their division title run for years now, and every prediction has been wrong so far. I'm not ready to hand the title to one of the up and comers, but I'm not saying the other teams can't win. What I know is that the Braves added good starter in Tim Hudson, the enigmatic Raul Mondesi, and the 37 year old Brian Jordan. Mondesi and Jordan are coming off bad seasons, but looking to rebound. How much their 33 and 37 year old bodies can take is a mystery at this point. John Smoltz makes the move back to the rotation to join Hudson and Hampton, replacing the departed Jaret Wright. If Furcal and the Jones boys turn in expected seasons and the old outfielders keep it together, it looks like the shoulder of Smoltz may determine whether the streak reaches 14. I haven't mentioned the Brave bullpen because it really doesn't matter; Leo Mazzone will make they be successful, further cementing his Hall of Fame case.

Florida Marlins: A healthy and motivated Carolos Delgado will be a menacing left-handed force in the middle of the Marlin lineup. This team has no real weaknesses in its everyday lineup, except possibly for Encarnacion in the outfield, but he has the potential to be valuable even with a low average, as long as his power shows up. The team has suffered from lack of power up the middle, but the recent power spike of Alex Gonzalez and the addition of Delgado should help offset the lack of homers from Pierre and Castillo. A full season of Lo Duca should also be valuable, if not Pudge from the World Series year. Cabrera is a superstar in the making who only stands to improve at the tender age of 21. Burnett, Beckett, and Willis anchor a rotation bolstered by the aging Leiter. Mota and Alfonseca in the bullpen have great potential. This team could be fun to watch this year.

New York Mets: What will all the free agent money get Omar Minaya? It says here a third place finish and a lot of howling in the papers. Martinez and Beltran are good, if expensive, acquisitions. Pedro of today is a good pitcher, though not worth what he was paid and not for that length of time. He needs long rest to be effective, which limits his starts, though pitching in Shea stadium with the pitchers batting should make his starts last longer. Beltran is a star, though much of his contract was earned in two weeks of postseason play. He brings the whole package and should help the Mets offensively and defensively. Cameron is still good, and Piazza, though not what he was, can still hit the ball. I question the rotation with the aging Glavine and the unproven, if highly paid, Benson and Zambrano. They will not be bad, but I still think the two teams above are better.

Philadelphia Phillies: I bet this wasn't what Jim Thome had in mind when he took Philly's money a few years ago. Now that Bowa is gone, maybe this team can live up to its potential. Abreu is the best player you've never heard of, and Lieber was a steal. I will say that this team is the one most likely to outperform this prediction. I think all four of the teams discussed so far have a pretty good shot at the division, and may end up separated by five games or less. If Philly's players live up to expectations, they could end the Braves' run, but that's been said for a number of years now, so I'm waiting for them to prove it to me. I'm not sure what they'll get from Kenny Lofton in center. The Yankees didn't want to keep him around, as he's lost a step and can be a bit of a whiner. Maybe a reunion with Charlie Manuel and Jim Thome will do him good and he'll have a bounce back year.

Washington Nationals: New city, new name, still no owner. The financial handcuffs on this team makes it hard for them to compete, and they are the only team in the division that has no real shot at the playoffs this year. I hope that the eventual owner is willing to invest in the team and work to make it competitive. If it could be done in Montreal (1994), it can surely be done in Washington. They've been fairly active, signing Guzman, Guillen, and Castilla, but I fear only Guillen is worth the money. Vidro is excellent, and Johnson will hit if he is healthy, which he surely won't be. Livan Hernandez will continue to defy all logic about pitcher abuse and put up another fine season, and Loaiza will again try to prove 2003 wasn't a fluke. They can't win the division, and a .500 season will be reason to celebrate, not to mention a huge accomplishment given their circumstances.

National League Central

St. Louis Cardinals: The NL Champs should be back in the playoffs again. This is typically one of the more competitive divisions, but I think St. Louis has the edge. Mark Mulder, though something was wrong last year, should still be one of their better pitchers. The rest of the rotation is solid, and that's all they should have to be with this offense. Pujols is an animal, if he can shake those nagging injuries, Edmonds is still one of the best, and a full season of Larry Walker won't hurt. Losing Renteria will hurt, and the problem was compounded by overpaying for his replacement in David Eckstein, who is my hero. This may come back to bite me, but I feel more confident about this division winner pick than any of the others, assuming none of their starters blow up.

Chicago Cubs: Say goodbye to Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou. Say hello to Jeromy Burnitz. Even an unhappy and declining Sosa is a player most teams would like to have in the lineup, but a lot of people felt he had to go. A healthy Mark Prior should be a big help, but let's see him stay healthy for a few years before ordering his plaque in Cooperstown. Nomar was the shortstop bargain of the winter, and Aramis Ramirez has come fully into his own. Much of the linupe remainst he same, though the Ryan Dempster closer experiment could be telling for this season. The four horsemen of Prior, Wood, Maddux, and Zambrano could make life miserable for the rest of the division, but I'll need to see more out of the lineup to convince me they'll top the Cards.

Cincinnati Reds: The annual Griffey hamstring watch is about to commence. He's a Hall of Famer if he never steps on the field again, but I think we'd all like to see at least one more full season from Junior. Lucky for the Reds, they have four guys who can play the outfield pretty well in Dunn, Kearns, Griffey, and Wily Mo Pena. The infield is less potent, except for the always dangerous Sean Casey. Hopefully, Ryan Freel will not be relegated to a utility role and will be allowed to play regularly, as he is a good young player. The Great American Ballpark is a great place for power hitters, and not so great for starting pitchers, who can get tired in the slugfests that are sure to come. Add new starter Eric Milton's homer-happiness, and it could be a recipe for trouble if he can't keep it in the yard.

Houston Astros: Few teams have lost as much as Houston this offseason. Jeff Kent and Carlos Beltran are gone from the team that nearly made the World Series. Biggio and Bagwell are a year older and slower, but Berkman is still a killer B, though his return from a church flag football knee injury is uncertain, and I'm not making that last part up. They didn't lose a large number of players, but they did lose a lot of production from the middle of the order that will be difficult to replace. Hindsight says they should have made their pitch to Beltran and moved on when Boras balked, but that's hard to do in the heat of the negotiation. As such, they lost Beltran while a lot of other free agents signed elsewhere. The return of Clemens will be good, and Pettite hopes to be healthy. Clemens-Pettite-Oswalt is a good trio that will win some games, but the losses and age related decline will prove too much to overcome in a competitive division.

Milwaukee Brewers: They have a few nice hitters, and most think they fleeced the White Sox in the Podsednik-Carlos Lee trade, but I don't feel they can compete, though they have a chance to win a few games. Geoff Jenkins finally had an injury-free season; let's see if he can do it twice in a row. Lyle Overbay and Junio Spivey are solid players in the infield. I fear the rest of the lineup is a bit weak. Ben Sheets is a front line starter for sure, and Doug Davis should be fine if last year's strikeout rate increase holds up, but it takes more than two starters to get the job done in the days of the five man rotation. Replacing Dan Kolb, last year's All-Star closer, will be a chore, but closers are not as rare as the media leads you to believe. What's unsure is if Mike Adams can do the job.

Pittsburge Pirates: Another year of development out of the young players could help Pittsburgh get out of the cellar. Oliver Perez has the stuff to make scouts and stat-heads alike drool. The two Wilsons and Jason Bay look to build on excellent seasons, and Matt Lawton will provide some more outfield bang. I can't help but think that there had to be a better option at catcher than 39 year old Benito Santiago. Shouldn't they be letting people play who will be around the next time they can contend. Free J.R. House! Anyhow, we've been waiting on Wells and Fogg to fulfill their promise for some time now, and this year would be as good as any for them to break out. I still think they'll be closer to the bottom than the top, even if Mesa can again drink from the fountain of youth and save a whole bunch of games.

National League West

Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers should be playoff bound again this year. Rather than stand pat with the team that did it last year, they took action in free agency, and it looks like Paul DePodesta did a pretty good job. If good Derek Lowe shows up, the contract they gave him isn't quite as bad as it looks. Lowe has a fragile psyche and is pretty much a head case, if you ask me, but when his sinker is working, he's nigh on unhittable. Perez, Weaver, and Penny are all good pitchers, though Penny's arm injury from last year is still cause for concern. J.D. Drew and Jeff Kent should proved some power, provided neither breaks down, Kent from age and Drew because that's what he does. Also, it helps to have one of the most dominant relievers in baseball finishing off games for you.

San Francisco Giants: As the Barry Bonds show heads into a 2oth successful season, one wonders why Brian Sabean is allergic to players under 30. No one who truly understands the game thinks Mike Matheny is a better choice over the cheaper and better Yorvit Torrealba, who is rightly ticked off about this past offseason. Alou and Vizquel are a lot closer to 40 than 30, and the Giants must be starting the only outfield with every member over 37. I just feel there were better options than the geezers, and that those options would have been both cheaper and better, just as with Torrealba. The pitching will be similar to last year and will again benefit from the pitcher-friendly SBC Park. Perhaps they can win the wild car on the back of another historic Bonds effort, but I'm skeptical, and I can't help feeling like Sabean really screwed things up, but he won't look as bad as he is because of Bonds and Schmidt.

San Diego Padres: They're looking to build on last year's successes and move on the contend in the future. If things break right, they could surely be in the thick of things come September. Petco park depresses offense enough to let pitchers develop, and maybe it will increase the effectiveness of new starter Woody Williams. Jake Peavy was in the Cy Young discussion at the end of last season, and he's only 23. Khalil Greene was good as a rookie and stands to get better. They have good power on the corners (3B excepted) and good defense up the middle. The back of the rotation is a concern, bt they may surprise some people this summer.

Arizona Diamondbacks: For a team supposedly on the verge of bankruptcy, they sure spent a lot on free agents. They added Troy Glaus and Russ Ortiz, and traded for Javier Vazquez and Shawn Green. This should be enough to get them back out of last place, but I bet they'd win a few more games with Randy Johson than Javier Vazquez, who may yet be traded, if you ask me. The bullpen is a question mark as well as whether they are getting pre or post All Star Break Vazquez. Some of the players (Clayton, Counsell) seem to be over the proverbial hill, and I really have no idea what's going to happen with this team, just as no one had any idea how bad they'd be last year.

Colorado Rockies: How to win at altitude? No one has figured it out, but they're sure they answer is more pitchers, both to survive the high scoring games and account for the slow recovery time at that altitude. Todd Helton will be a monster yet again as he powers fantasy teams everywhere. Everyone else is pretty much worth a shrug, and an, "Eh, it doesn't matter." Jason Jennings is the "ace," and no one else is that good. It's another last place finish in Denver. Personally, I think you need sinkerballers to win in Colorado, but why would any free agent sign there after watching Mike Hamption implode before Leo Mazzone rescued him?

There it is, the National League. As Gregg Easterbrook says, all predictions guaranteed wrong or your money back.