Foul Territory

In reading the team articles at the beginning of each chapter in Baseball Prospectus 2005, a theme has begun to emerge. That theme is planning. The teams that are successful in the Major Leagues are not always the ones with the most resources, the biggest fan base, or the largest TV deal. The teams that consistently win are those with a well thought out long-term plan that they execute year in and year out without much regard for the opinions of the public or (especially) the media. Having a large budget helps, but the flailing about of the NY Mets the past few seasons and the Red Sox for most of the 90s proves that it isn't how much you have, it's what you do with it. The more money you have, the more mistakes your budget will tolerate, but all the money in the world won't replace sound team management (you hear that, Steinbrenner?). That said, there are a few principles that successful teams seem to follow, though each goes about it in its own way.

1. Plan for the future, both in contracts and player development. Mark Shapiro did a good job of this, letting players go who were either too expensive or not going to be around the next time the Indians contended. He had a plan to win three and four years out from when he took over the reins from John Hart. Aging and expensive Jim Thome was let go to sign a contract that is likely to be an albatross in Philly, and Shapiro is committed to developing players in the system so as to extract maximum value out of their pre-arbitration years.

2. Don't hang on to past glory by overpaying over-the-hill-players. Just because a player was a valuable part of a team for seven or eight years, that doesn't mean there's an excuse for misguided loyalty. The Reds drew themselves into a corner with Barry Larkin's deal, even after he was smack in the middle of his decline phase. The Braves, on the other hand, have let expensive players take someone else's money when the dollars paid didn't equal the performance gained. Jaret Wright's monster deal with the Yankees comes to mind here, and Atlanta was smart to let someone else pay him that much money. On the other hand, if Bagwell and Biggio get new contracts after their current deals are up, fans in Houston have every right to revolt.

3. Draft players with good track records, but don't be afraid to gamble on a high school phenom or two. Restricting yourself to only college or only high school players unnecessarily hamstrings a team come draft day. Picking only high school leaves Mark Prior to someone else, while restriction yourself to college leaves Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. on the vine. That said, keep risk management in mind when drafting. Without an unlimited budget, you need to be able to stock your major league team with players drafted by your organization. To do this, keep in mind that high school pitchers tend to flame out, players move down the defensive spectrum as they move up the minor league ladder, and "tools" are ideally possessed by someone who can actually play baseball.

4. Develop a strong minor league system. As previously stated, good young players are a lot cheaper than good old players. Drafted (and acquired minor league) players will be cheap until they become arbitration eligible. Getting as much value as possible out of the young players requires developing those young players from the minute they arrive in the low minors. Setting up a system of player development that will be executed top to bottom results in promoting the players who have shown the skills necessary for big league success. If you want to preach plate discipline, then hitting coaches from rookie league on up must be training hitters to be patient.

5. Make use of freely available talent. Figure out what is available and then make sure you don't overpay for it. Corner outfielders and first basemen that can hit are usually not in short supply, so it makes no sense to overpay for a backup or a pinch hitter at these positions. Similarly, there are a large number of hard throwing relievers who can have great success under the right conditions. This is the secret of the Braves bullpen. They let the expensive guys go because they know the cheap guys can do 90% of the work for 30% of the money. Similarly, don't be lured by the label of "proven veteran." There are countless AA and AAA guys who can do the work of many "proven veterans" for a quarter the cash while getting the valuable experience necessary to become major parts of the next championship team.

6. Don't overpay for free agents. When shopping, consider how old a player will be at the end of a proposed deal. Will he be able to contribute at a level that justifies his salary. If not, take years or dollars off the contract. Not all big contracts are a problem, but many are. Shopping without keeping this in mind results in signing Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright to contrats disproportionate with their ability. It's also good to keep the length of pitcher contracts down, as every pitcher is one torn labrum away from ending his career, and you don't want to pay damaged goods many millions just so he can disappoint.

There you have it. Six things that will help result in successful baseball. Having a plan is the most important thing, as well as executing it. Don't make any moves that you can't clearly define how they will help your team win going forward.